Confronting the Status Quo – Dr Susan Krumdieck

Posted by Matt Beer - January 28, 2014 - Economics, Economics Level 3, Energy, Level 3, Oil, Peak Oil Level 3

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In this great little talk Dr Susan Krumdieck speaks about our energy conundrum through a lens that is rarely used: financial return. Presumably talking to business leaders she quickly dismisses the relevance of peak oil, climate change and sustainability as reasons to change and goes straight to the formula for a resource base that is consumed by exponential growth and how everything inevitably follows a path of boom and bust. In other words the same curve as what peak oil describes.

She then goes into depth about the falling levels of EROI (Energy Return on Investment) and has some great sankey diagrams showing how as the rate of return drops so to does the amount of energy available to service the economy, particularly the energy levels needed to grow the economy. Her conclusions are clear and stark. Economic growth will not continue and economic survival will be dependant on the ability to adapt. The communities/companies/people who change the most to a low energy consumption pattern will be the most successful in the future.

The Crisis of Civilization

Posted by Matt Beer - March 8, 2013 - Climate Destabilisation, Climate Level 4, Economics, Economics Level 4, Energy, Geo-politics, Level 4, Oil, Peak Oil Level 4

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This 77 min pseudo documentary “The Crisis of Civilization” is based on the Book by Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed of the same name. It goes through multiple parts each exploring various elements of our interconnected world, namely Climate Catastrophe; Peak Energy; Peak Food; Economic Instability; International Terrorism; and the Militarization Tendency with some final thoughts on a Post Peak World. I have mixed feeling about this one and I still can’t figure out if I like it. For starters it really is just a long talk done in an interview style with some old stock footage and the occasional custom animations to provide some visual distraction. I don’t have a problem with this, but that is what the pseudo documentary refers to.

What it does do well is take a holistic view of the world and the many problems we are currently facing and pulls them together. I am in broad agreement of most the overall stuff that Nafeez talks about, especially highlighting the link between our current neo-classical economic model and energy use. But the scientific/academic side of me cringed a few times at some of the statements he made and I was inwardly saying “that’s not technically correct”. It just made me question his thinking when he said this and this and therefore that. There was certainty some cherry picking of data and some logical inconstancies that made his truth more obvious than it fact it likely is.

For example he talked about how the world oil production would peak (I agree), then he said that nuclear energy uses oil (yes) and therefore oil peaking would make uranium mining unviable (which I cannot agree with). Yeah sure it might not work under the exact market conditions of today, but if I was a head of state with an oil crisis on my hands I would sure as hell prioritise getting oil to critical economic functions like electricity generation. Lets not confuse peak oil with running out all together and there is a hell of a lot of waste in the system so making just a small saving in domestic transport will free up more than enough to make nuclear energy viable (or building renewables for that matter). There certainly is a risk of what Nafeez talks about coming true, but there is probably a bigger likelihood that collective human effort and technology will be directed into solving some of these energy problems. That side of things doesn’t really get a mention. I could go through another few examples but I won’t.

What I will say to you watch this to get an overview of our problems from holistic viewpoint. You should certainly be aware of the broad areas that this film covers and how they fit together. As for the details I would say don’t take them as the gospel truth even there is a lot of truth in there. This is still basically another opinion film and I generally always have a problem with pure opinion as broad statements can be made without the viewer knowing the truth behind them. This is why I will continue to stick to keeping data at the centre of any videos and articles that I make.

Peak Oil Files – 5 – Future Story of Oil

Posted by Matt Beer - November 29, 2012 - Economics, Energy, Level 3, Oil, Peak Oil, Peak Oil Files, Peak Oil Level 3

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This particular chapter takes a more detailed look at the various oil demand projections by comparing each organisation’s take on the main economic forces that shape their final numbers. Despite the huge uncertainty, there is near universal agreement on some of these forces. But opinion is divided on the biggest question of all – will supply be able to meet demand.

Crude Oil, Economics, Economy, fossil fuel, GDP, Growth, Oil, Peak Oil, Transport, Video

Peak Oil Files – 4 – Future Demand

Posted by Matt Beer - November 29, 2012 - Economics, Energy, Level 3, Oil, Peak Oil, Peak Oil Files, Peak Oil Level 3

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This chapter looks at the recent history of the many organisations that make energy demand forecasts. Their track record has a lot to be desired but understanding the huge uncertainties involved highlights just how easy they are to get wrong.

Crude Oil, Economics, Economy, fossil fuel, Oil, Peak Oil, Transport, Video

Peak Oil Files – 3 – In High Demand

Posted by Matt Beer - November 29, 2012 - Economics, Energy, Level 3, Oil, Peak Oil, Peak Oil Files, Peak Oil Level 3

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This chapter attempts to cover the last 150 years of oil consumption with the aim of discovering the main economic forces that have helped shape how and where oil is used today. By understanding these forces we can begin to understand how future oil demand will unfold.

Crude Oil, Economics, Economy, fossil fuel, GDP, Oil, Peak Oil, Transport, Video

Peak Oil Files – 2 – Energy Security

Posted by Matt Beer - November 26, 2012 - Economics, Energy, Level 3, Oil, Peak Oil Files, Peak Oil Level 3

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This chapter attempts to explain why oil depletion is not simply a problem of “will we run out” but rather a more complicated supply and demand problem concerning energy security. The size of the tap is more important than the size of the tank.

Crude Oil, Economics, Economy, fossil fuel, Oil, Peak Oil, Transport, Video

Peak Oil Files – 1 – The Importance of Oil

Posted by Matt Beer - November 24, 2012 - Economics, Energy, Level 3, Oil, Peak Oil Files, Peak Oil Level 3

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This is the first chapter in an in depth, multi part, info-graphic based series that attempts to explain all the ins and outs of peak oil, why it is inevitable and what is likely to happen in the coming years. It is intended to be much like a book with separate, complimentary chapters that help properly educate people on all the ideas and issues surrounding the topic so that whoever watches will have a good enough understanding to be able to make some sensible decisions/comments. The emphasis is on “properly educate”, I want to help create a definitive guide that people can turn to when they want to learn about this incredibly important issue.

This particular chapter attempts to explain why oil is the lifeblood of today’s modern economy and how any major fluctuations in oil price can expose the many inherent weaknesses in this globalised system that feeds, clothes and houses us.

Crude Oil, Economics, Economy, fossil fuel, GDP, Oil, Peak Oil, Transport, Video

World Oil Supply Debate – ASPO & John Hofmeister

Posted by Matt Beer - November 24, 2012 - Economics, Energy, Level 4, Oil, Peak Oil Level 4

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An excellent debate between Dr. Tadeus Patzek (Chair, Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering, University of Texas – Austin, ASPO USA Vice President) & John Hofmeister (Ex CEO of Shell, Founder of Citizens for Affordable Energy) covering the topic “The World Oil Supply: Looming Crisis or New Abundance?”.

Despite the debate there was much agreed upon, largely that global trends, such as growth in demand from China and India, will force oil prices upwards and that current US energy policy is inadequate in addressing this problem (but agreeing on the what the future policy should be is another story).

Economy, EROEI, Oil, Peak Oil, Video

Jeffrey Rubin On Why High Oil Prices Stop Growth

Posted by Matt Beer - November 24, 2012 - Economics, Economics Level 3, Energy, Level 3, Oil, Peak Oil Level 3

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This almost 30 minute interview from In Conversation with Allan Gregg economist Jeffery Rubin talks about his book “The End of Growth”. His basic thesis is that high oil prices (100+ a barrel) will cause economic growth in the developed world to flat line (while China and India will slow to 4-5%) and the world is stuck with high oil prices because the marginal barrels being produced from the Canadian oil sands and the US light tight oil need these high oil prices. Basically it’s a catch 22 situation, to have traditional economic growth rates you need enough cheap oil, but to have enough oil we need to develop expensive sources and for that we need to have high oil prices. It’s basically a continuation of the energy return on energy invested (EROEI) argument.

But Jeff argues that this situation will have many silver linings. The higher transport costs will reverse the trend of globalisation and make local industry more competitive. It will also force us to have better urban planning and higher population densities that is a characteristic of the more livable world cities. The demise of the suburbs and high food prices will provide an economic incentive to turn much of this prime agricultural land back to the purpose they were originally used for – farming.

Economics, Economy, EROEI, Growth, Jeff Rubin, Oil, Peak Oil

Peak Oil Wars – Post Carbon Institute

Posted by Matt Beer - September 1, 2012 - Level 1, Oil, Peak Oil, Peak Oil Level 1

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Brilliant animation.

Peak Oil