Geo-politics

The Crisis of Civilization

Posted by Matt Beer - March 8, 2013 - Climate Destabilisation, Climate Level 4, Economics, Economics Level 4, Energy, Geo-politics, Level 4, Oil, Peak Oil Level 4

This 77 min pseudo documentary “The Crisis of Civilization” is based on the Book by Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed of the same name. It goes through multiple parts each exploring various elements of our interconnected world, namely Climate Catastrophe; Peak Energy; Peak Food; Economic Instability; International Terrorism; and the Militarization Tendency with some final thoughts on a Post Peak World. I have mixed feeling about this one and I still can’t figure out if I like it. For starters it really is just a long talk done in an interview style with some old stock footage and the occasional custom animations to provide some visual distraction. I don’t have a problem with this, but that is what the pseudo documentary refers to.

What it does do well is take a holistic view of the world and the many problems we are currently facing and pulls them together. I am in broad agreement of most the overall stuff that Nafeez talks about, especially highlighting the link between our current neo-classical economic model and energy use. But the scientific/academic side of me cringed a few times at some of the statements he made and I was inwardly saying “that’s not technically correct”. It just made me question his thinking when he said this and this and therefore that. There was certainty some cherry picking of data and some logical inconstancies that made his truth more obvious than it fact it likely is.

For example he talked about how the world oil production would peak (I agree), then he said that nuclear energy uses oil (yes) and therefore oil peaking would make uranium mining unviable (which I cannot agree with). Yeah sure it might not work under the exact market conditions of today, but if I was a head of state with an oil crisis on my hands I would sure as hell prioritise getting oil to critical economic functions like electricity generation. Lets not confuse peak oil with running out all together and there is a hell of a lot of waste in the system so making just a small saving in domestic transport will free up more than enough to make nuclear energy viable (or building renewables for that matter). There certainly is a risk of what Nafeez talks about coming true, but there is probably a bigger likelihood that collective human effort and technology will be directed into solving some of these energy problems. That side of things doesn’t really get a mention. I could go through another few examples but I won’t.

What I will say to you watch this to get an overview of our problems from holistic viewpoint. You should certainly be aware of the broad areas that this film covers and how they fit together. As for the details I would say don’t take them as the gospel truth even there is a lot of truth in there. This is still basically another opinion film and I generally always have a problem with pure opinion as broad statements can be made without the viewer knowing the truth behind them. This is why I will continue to stick to keeping data at the centre of any videos and articles that I make.

US Energy Security Council Inaugural Event 2011

Posted by Matt Beer - December 14, 2011 - Energy, Geo-politics, Level 4, Oil, Peak Oil Level 4

This 105 minute informal talk with a panel of about 10 members of the US Energy Security Council which includes many former heads of the military, US Senate, oil industry and governmental bodies most of which have “honorable” before their names (Ex CIA Boss James Woolsey, Senator and Professor Gary Hart and Alan Greenspan to name a few).

While this is not a new subject, this event attempted to frame the debate as there being a monopoly in one of the most profoundly important sectors in our economy and that monopoly is a great weakness which leave us all exposed if we do not do something about it. I am of course talking about oil being the only real source of energy for all the cars, trucks and airplanes currently operating in the world today. This council argues that the principle role of government is to create markets and have them work. A monopoly is an example of a market not working. In this regard they argue that they are not being anti-oil but rather pro choice or pro fuel choices.

The decades of inaction on developing a proper energy policy has meant that the US has developed one by default. That is: “We do have an energy policy. We rely on a single fuel. We buy it from a cartel controlled by people who don’t like us very much. And every five years we go to war to maintain that privilege”. The council members are deeply worried about the effects that an inevitable oil price shock will have on the US economy and the people within it as history has shown these price spikes help trigger recessions (I will assume they are also concerned about the rest of the world but as they are talking to an American audience we’ll let it slide).

Talk covers a range of issues, such as:

How there are many hidden costs to oil – the War on Terror, 30-40% of the US military budget directly and indirectly securing oil, climate change, social tension when oil prices rise, etc.
Another supply shock is on the cards. As most of the oil reserves are located in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region where there is great political instability, especially after the Arab Spring. How long will it be until the next Libya occurs? There have already been attacks on oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, when will there be a successful one?
Rise of developing nations. China is securing first rights to purchasing oil around the world meaning when a supply shock comes they will be more insulated and the world market will be that much tighter.
Alternative fuels. There were a few on the panel gunning for methanol though some of their arguments sounded a little too good to be true for me. While it theoretically makes a lot of sense the actual practical and economic reality is less clear.

Perhaps the most important point is that all cars built today should be flex fuel vehicles. It only costs $100 to add in a sensor chip that detects the fuel on board and makes small changes to the fuel injection and spark plug timing to enable the engine to burn whatever mixture of ethanol or petrol/gasoline is in the tank. $100 buys flexibility for the fleet of the future and may in the long run save us billions, potentially trillions of dollars. This has happened successfully in Brazil and should be an easy mandate to pass by governments in the rest of the world. Key word should.

The same goes for developing a sensible policy on energy.

Biofuels, Conventional oil, Crude Oil, fossil fuel, Gasoline, Geo-politics, Oil, Transport, United States, Video

Gwynne Dyer – Geopolitics in a Hotter World

Posted by Matt Beer - November 17, 2011 - Climate Destabilisation, Climate Level 4, Geo-politics, Level 4

This was a really interesting talk. Journalist and historian Gwynne Dyer is clearly a knowledgeable guy being able to speak ad lib for 90 minutes on the ramifications of what would happen in a world were we don’t make the changes necessary to avoid catastrophic climate change. In his research for his book – Climate Wars – he talked to many senior military strategic figures who he tells us are taking the issues surrounding climate change, energy security, food and water shortages very seriously. He talks about what the world will look like if the warming of 3-4 degrees that many scientists actually believe will happen over the next 40-50 years. To put this in context when the world was 4-5 degrees cooler than now it was in the midst of an ice age where cities like London and New York were permanently covered in ice, it is a world so dramatically different to the one now as to be almost unrecognizable. As Gwynne describes, oceans don’t warm nearly as much the land will, so for every degree of average planet wide warming there will be a much higher impact on the land (depending where you are). The main impact of this will be in food production and to quote Gwynne, “people raid before they starve” (I like Rage Against the Machine “hungry people don’t stay hungry for long”) and this will have massive implications in terms of climate refugees, migration, political upheaval and potential conflict over water and food resources. This is what the US military is worried about.

Now I will classify Mr Dyer as a gloomer (although looking at the evidence it is very easy to be one) so I do take all the details of what he says with a pinch of salt. But this talk is not about if his prediction of the future is correct, but rather a what if. What if we don’t get our act together and make the changes to our entire energy and economic infrastructure to totally decarbonise our economy within the next 40 years. In that scenario what options will be left open to us? Mr Dyer contends that geo-engineering (through manipulation of the amount of solar radiation that would hit the earth’s surface) could be the most contentious geo-political issue in the future. The relative ease and low expense of injecting sulfur particles into the air would be fair cheaper and more effective than reducing emissions and so countries that could loose a lot, such as Bangladesh, may be compelled to act without global agreement even though the risks of such an action will be shared by everyone on the planet. The proverbial kid peeing in the swimming pool.

Definitely worth a watch as Gwynne has thought a lot about a future which most of us would not like to contemplate but one that increasingly looks more and more probable.

On a side note, I do feel that I need to point out to all the military strategists that if the US Military didn’t take half of the budget and instead diverted a significant chunk of those funds towards phasing out fossil fuels we could probably avoid the whole situation.

Adaption, Climate Change, Climate Destabilisation, Economy, Geo-engineering, Global Warming, Military, Mitigation

CSIS – Geopolitics of Clean Energy

Posted by Matt Beer - November 7, 2011 - Climate Level 4, Energy, Geo-politics, Level 4, Peak Oil Level 4, Renewables

For more info on the event, including slides on the presentations at csis.org

Clean Energy, Economics, Economy, Geopolitics, Renewables

Overcoming the Resource Curse – Stanford Uni

Posted by Matt Beer - September 10, 2011 - Economics, Economics Level 4, Energy, Geo-politics, Level 4, Peak Oil, Peak Oil Level 4

Terry Karl, Gildred Professor of Latin American Studies and professor of Political Science at Stanford University, discusses overcoming the resource curse. Also known as the paradox of plenty it is the fact that most resource rich, in this case oil rich countries are performing far poorer than non resource rich countries in terms of development and governance indicators, defying logical economic thought. This is largely a phenomenon in countries which have poor governing systems and high incomes (from the oil) increasing the likelihood of corruption. These oil rents/income break the traditional relationship of governments and people with the tax, representation, accountability dynamic found in developed countries such as Europe and the US. When government coffers are not dependent on taxes and are almost exclusively dependent on secret transactions between oil companies and governments it leads to the continuation of this corruption cycle. Government leaders can spend this money however they like, building up military and buying off certain key sections of the population (religious, ethnic, regional groups, etc.) and keep control of government through more autocratic means. A story that exists in the majority of oil producing countries.

Terry argues that transparency in disclosing payments made from oil companies to countries is a key first step in breaking the cycle of secrecy which helps shape the current political situations of civil war and conflict in many of these oil producing countries. Without it, development and democracy will be permanently hindered. It also has large ramifications for the world as a whole. Reporting on oil production and reserves is highly dubious in terms of accuracy and the biggest, most profitable market in the world uses this extremely bad information to predict oil prices. This helps breed uncertainty, speculation and ultimately volatility in the marketplace which is bad for every consumer of oil but also completes a viscous circle with oil producing countries as their incomes yoyo up and down, causing any budget planning to go out the window. This also helps breed mistrust between the various parties, particularly with the left out sections of the population of the oil producing countries, increasing likelihood of conflict, interruptions in oil production and further market volatility. The resource curse affects us all.

Africa, Economics, Geo-politics, Oil Companies, Oil Producing Countries, OPEC, Peak Oil, Reporting, Resource Curse, Video

Oil, Smoke and Mirrors – Full Length Doco

Posted by Matt Beer - September 5, 2011 - Energy, Geo-politics

I’ll be honest and say I didn’t particularly like this doco and I did skip through it a bit. It tries to make the case that the US invasion of Iraq was all for the control of oil and 9/11 was the manufactured excuse. September 11 theories is a whole other ball game that I am not too interested in. Yes there are some legitimate questions unanswered, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that the government planned the whole thing. I would want substantial proof and all this doco delivers is here-say. Not what I would call proper journalism even if all the content was true.

Not that it didn’t give the US government a good excuse to invade Iraq. If you look at the history, the West has been fiddling around with the Middle Eastern people for a long time and this will only continue. No doubting oil at the centre of it all.

I put this up as the first 20 or so mins does have some decent monologues of peak oil, tar sands (57:20 in) and OPEC reserve (1:33:00 in). Just for reference.

The Other Side of Suez – 1956

Posted by Matt Beer - July 26, 2011 - Energy, Geo-politics, Level 4, Oil, Peak Oil Level 4

A half hour BBC documentary on the Suez War in 1956 where Egypt nationalised the important trading route of the Suez Canal which triggered Britain, France and Israel to invade Egypt.

Modern Warfare: 6 Day War

Posted by Matt Beer - July 26, 2011 - Energy, Geo-politics, Level 4, Oil, Peak Oil Level 4

Another take on the Arab-Israel Six Day War. It is in 4 parts so click the corresponding link when each segment ends.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhMuVQtMlos

The Six Day War 1967

Posted by Matt Beer - July 26, 2011 - Energy, Geo-politics, Level 4, Oil, Peak Oil Level 4

A 50 min doco that covers the events of the Six Day War between Israel and it’s Arab neighbours Egypt, Jordan and Syria. The war would shake up the region, change the map and set the conditions for the Yom Kippur War 6 years later and the 1973 oil crisis.

Yom Kippur War 1973: The Egyptian Revenge

Posted by Matt Beer - July 26, 2011 - Energy, Geo-politics, Level 4, Oil, Peak Oil Level 4

Covers the events of the war that lead to Arab members of OPEC cutting oil production causing the 1973 oil crisis.