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Posts tagged "Conventional oil"

US Energy Security Council Inaugural Event 2011

Posted by Matt Beer - December 14, 2011 - Energy, Geo-politics, Level 4, Oil, Peak Oil Level 4
0

This 105 minute informal talk with a panel of about 10 members of the US Energy Security Council which includes many former heads of the military, US Senate, oil industry and governmental bodies most of which have “honorable” before their names (Ex CIA Boss James Woolsey, Senator and Professor Gary Hart and Alan Greenspan to name a few).

While this is not a new subject, this event attempted to frame the debate as there being a monopoly in one of the most profoundly important sectors in our economy and that monopoly is a great weakness which leave us all exposed if we do not do something about it. I am of course talking about oil being the only real source of energy for all the cars, trucks and airplanes currently operating in the world today. This council argues that the principle role of government is to create markets and have them work. A monopoly is an example of a market not working. In this regard they argue that they are not being anti-oil but rather pro choice or pro fuel choices.

The decades of inaction on developing a proper energy policy has meant that the US has developed one by default. That is: “We do have an energy policy. We rely on a single fuel. We buy it from a cartel controlled by people who don’t like us very much. And every five years we go to war to maintain that privilege”. The council members are deeply worried about the effects that an inevitable oil price shock will have on the US economy and the people within it as history has shown these price spikes help trigger recessions (I will assume they are also concerned about the rest of the world but as they are talking to an American audience we’ll let it slide).

Talk covers a range of issues, such as:

  • How there are many hidden costs to oil – the War on Terror, 30-40% of the US military budget directly and indirectly securing oil, climate change, social tension when oil prices rise, etc.
  • Another supply shock is on the cards. As most of the oil reserves are located in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region where there is great political instability, especially after the Arab Spring.  How long will it be until the next Libya occurs? There have already been attacks on oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, when will there be a successful one?
  • Rise of developing nations. China is securing first rights to purchasing oil around the world meaning when a supply shock comes they will be more insulated and the world market will be that much tighter.
  • Alternative fuels. There were a few on the panel gunning for methanol though some of their arguments sounded a little too good to be true for me. While it theoretically makes a lot of sense the actual practical and economic reality is less clear.

Perhaps the most important point is that all cars built today should be flex fuel vehicles. It only costs $100 to add in a sensor chip that detects the fuel on board and makes small changes to the fuel injection and spark plug timing to enable the engine to burn whatever mixture of ethanol or petrol/gasoline is in the tank. $100 buys flexibility for the fleet of the future and may in the long run save us billions, potentially trillions of dollars. This has happened successfully in Brazil and should be an easy mandate to pass by governments in the rest of the world. Key word should.

The same goes for developing a sensible policy on energy.

Biofuels, Conventional oil, Crude Oil, fossil fuel, Gasoline, Geo-politics, Oil, Transport, United States, Video

Stanford Uni – Transportation & Climate Change

Posted by Matt Beer - December 4, 2011 - Energy, Level 4, Oil, Peak Oil Level 4
0

Andreas Schafer, director of the Martin Center for Architectural and Urban Studies at the University of Cambridge, discusses the impact of the transportation sector with respect to climate destabilisation (change) and growing carbon emissions. Specifically he talks about the specific factors at play including passenger kilometres travelled (PKT), energy intensity per PKT and emissions intensity of given fuels with data for various countries at differing stages of economic prosperity. Andreas finds a lot of commonality between the amount of time different countries populations spend travelling and the proportion of GDP they spend doing so.

While there are vast differences in emissions impact between countries they all seem to follow a similar trend as they develop, it’s just where they lie on that curve. As people get richer they generally spend more on faster modes of transport (walking > bike > car > train > plane/high speed rail) and cover more kilometres/miles. This is compounded by the fact that as countries get richer, there has been a tendency for more women in the workforce which has resulted in less children and lower occupancy rates in vehicles (as well as more money to spend on travel). The existing trends for energy intensity are also heading in the wrong direction becoming higher and not lower. The gains made in engine efficiency have been more than offset by larger, faster and more powerful vehicles and the example of Toyota Camry has shown that 24 years of advancement has resulted in a 20% increase in fuel use. He also quickly summarises the relative carbon intensity of various fuel/vehicle combinations although most of the alternative fuels are a long way away from being at the scale our current conventional oil fuels are used.

Andreas then looks to the future to see what the potential impact policies can help to guide technology and social/behavioural patterns into creating a sustainable transport systems. In short, with the most effective policies in place we might be able to reduce emissions intensity of the worldwide by 30-50%, the impact of massive populations of the emerging countries such as China behaving more like western countries is likely to lead to at best a doubling of emissions from transport. Without these policies it could be 3 to 4 times more than today.

For a link to his co-authored official work – Transportation in a Climate-Constrained World – and raw data from some of his slides please visit www.transportandclimate.com

Climate Change, Climate Destabilisation, Conventional oil, Stanford University, Transport, Video

How an Oil Well is Drilled

Posted by Matt Beer - November 21, 2011 - Energy, Level 3, Oil, Peak Oil, Peak Oil Level 3
0

A simple little 6 min computer animation that shows the start to finish steps of how an oil well is brought into production.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DniNIvE69SE

Conventional oil, Crude Oil, fossil fuel, Oil, Oil Production, Video

CSIS – IEA Medium Term Oil & Gas Market

Posted by Matt Beer - November 8, 2011 - Climate Level 4, Energy, Level 4, Natural Gas, Oil, Peak Oil, Peak Oil Level 4
0

I would of liked to be able to post the 2011 version of this up but every version of CSIS.org recording of the event (youtube, www.csis.org, itunes) seems to end after 7 mins. Still the 2010 version is quite similar and should give you a decent summary of the shorter term issues and what is in the pipeline for oil and gas at the moment.

Check out the csis.org page on the event for the slides that accompany the presentations.

Biofuels, Conventional oil, GDP, Natural Gas, Oil, Unconventional Oil, Video

CSIS – International Energy Agency WEO 2010 Summary

Posted by Matt Beer - November 7, 2011 - Climate Destabilisation, Climate Level 4, Coal, Energy, Level 4, Natural Gas, Oil, Peak Oil, Peak Oil Level 4, Renewables, Sustainable Economy
0

Definitely worth a watch. The big boys from the IEA give their take on the very important annual World Energy Outlook report which was released November 2010.

Click the link for the csis.org page detailing the event, the speakers and the slides that go with the presentations.

Climate Change, Conventional oil, Economy, environment, fossil fuel, GDP, Global Warming, Oil, sustainability, Transport, Unconventional Oil, Video

The Future of Oil – Stanford Uni

Posted by Matt Beer - September 10, 2011 - Oil, Peak Oil, Peak Oil Level 4
0

Roland Horne, Thomas Davies Barrow Professor in the School of Earth Sciences at Stanford University, discusses the future of oil, mainly that of peak oil, production rates and where future oil will come from.

Conventional oil, OPEC, Peak Oil, Production, Reserves, Unconventional Oil, Video

Oilfield Steam Injection – Prolonging Oilfield Life

Posted by Matt Beer - June 5, 2011 - Energy, Level 4, Oil, Peak Oil, Peak Oil Level 4
0

Chevron, Conventional oil, Oil, Oil Production, Peak Oil

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