This particular chapter takes a more detailed look at the various oil demand projections by comparing each organisation’s take on the main economic forces that shape their final numbers. Despite the huge uncertainty, there is near universal agreement on some of these forces. But opinion is divided on the biggest question of all – will supply be able to meet demand.
This chapter looks at the recent history of the many organisations that make energy demand forecasts. Their track record has a lot to be desired but understanding the huge uncertainties involved highlights just how easy they are to get wrong.
This chapter attempts to cover the last 150 years of oil consumption with the aim of discovering the main economic forces that have helped shape how and where oil is used today. By understanding these forces we can begin to understand how future oil demand will unfold.
This chapter attempts to explain why oil depletion is not simply a problem of “will we run out” but rather a more complicated supply and demand problem concerning energy security. The size of the tap is more important than the size of the tank.
This is the first chapter in an in depth, multi part, info-graphic based series that attempts to explain all the ins and outs of peak oil, why it is inevitable and what is likely to happen in the coming years. It is intended to be much like a book with separate, complimentary chapters that help properly educate people on all the ideas and issues surrounding the topic so that whoever watches will have a good enough understanding to be able to make some sensible decisions/comments. The emphasis is on “properly educate”, I want to help create a definitive guide that people can turn to when they want to learn about this incredibly important issue.
This particular chapter attempts to explain why oil is the lifeblood of today’s modern economy and how any major fluctuations in oil price can expose the many inherent weaknesses in this globalised system that feeds, clothes and houses us.
This 105 minute informal talk with a panel of about 10 members of the US Energy Security Council which includes many former heads of the military, US Senate, oil industry and governmental bodies most of which have “honorable” before their names (Ex CIA Boss James Woolsey, Senator and Professor Gary Hart and Alan Greenspan to name a few).
While this is not a new subject, this event attempted to frame the debate as there being a monopoly in one of the most profoundly important sectors in our economy and that monopoly is a great weakness which leave us all exposed if we do not do something about it. I am of course talking about oil being the only real source of energy for all the cars, trucks and airplanes currently operating in the world today. This council argues that the principle role of government is to create markets and have them work. A monopoly is an example of a market not working. In this regard they argue that they are not being anti-oil but rather pro choice or pro fuel choices.
The decades of inaction on developing a proper energy policy has meant that the US has developed one by default. That is: “We do have an energy policy. We rely on a single fuel. We buy it from a cartel controlled by people who don’t like us very much. And every five years we go to war to maintain that privilege”. The council members are deeply worried about the effects that an inevitable oil price shock will have on the US economy and the people within it as history has shown these price spikes help trigger recessions (I will assume they are also concerned about the rest of the world but as they are talking to an American audience we’ll let it slide).
Talk covers a range of issues, such as:
Perhaps the most important point is that all cars built today should be flex fuel vehicles. It only costs $100 to add in a sensor chip that detects the fuel on board and makes small changes to the fuel injection and spark plug timing to enable the engine to burn whatever mixture of ethanol or petrol/gasoline is in the tank. $100 buys flexibility for the fleet of the future and may in the long run save us billions, potentially trillions of dollars. This has happened successfully in Brazil and should be an easy mandate to pass by governments in the rest of the world. Key word should.
The same goes for developing a sensible policy on energy.
Biofuels, Conventional oil, Crude Oil, fossil fuel, Gasoline, Geo-politics, Oil, Transport, United States, VideoA simple little 6 min computer animation that shows the start to finish steps of how an oil well is brought into production.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DniNIvE69SE
Conventional oil, Crude Oil, fossil fuel, Oil, Oil Production, VideoI have seen Adam Brandt’s name pop up a few times in some of the life cycle analysis literature I have seen so it was good to see him speak as part of the Stanford Uni series I am slowly making my way through.
You can probably divide this talk up in to 2 parts. The first 15 mins is quite a good overview of the whole peak oil debate and Adam’s quite reasonable take on it. The problem is of course is it is virtually impossible to predict the future (which is the whole point of the rest of the talk) but Adam goes through a lot of the issues which helps wrap your mind about what the various future pathways could be. But in general, conventional oil will decline and other oil/liquid fuel sources will replace this. I am in broad agreement with his conclusions that oil prices will have to be in the $100-150 per barrel range to facilitate this and that greenhouse gases will rise as we make the switch. Although it doesn’t capture what oil price shocks and environmental shocks from climate change will do.
The second part of the talk becomes a lot more academic-y as Adam describes his computer simulation model that attempts the impossible of seeing what the future will look like. His approach is take a whole bunch of variables, such as economic growth, oil depletion, carbon tax, etc and show what the various ranges of what could happen with these would do to the overall oil supply picture. Adam is well aware of the limitations of doing this but also sees the value in using these types of models to gain a better understanding of how all these different variables tie together, with the overall aim of trying to find some win-win policy options that would be “robust” no matter what assumptions we decide to make about the future or the uncertainty of these assumptions.
So definitely check out the first 15 mins and then you can judge if you want to check out the rest.
The New York Times reports that since 1990, more than 110 million gallons of mostly crude and petroleum products have spilled from the nation’s mainland pipeline network. More than half of it occurred in three states — Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana — where more pipelines exist.
Source: Department of Transportation, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration
Crude Oil, environment, Info-graphic, Oil, Oil Spills, Pipelines, Polution, United States